Bitcoin Could Rally 170% by Year-End

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Bitcoin Could Rally 170% by Year-End
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Bitcoin (BTC) price surged more than 8.5% last week in a strong recovery, holding near $64,000. Falling U.S. interest rates have fueled much of the move, which many believe is the start of a new bull cycle.

One trader betting on this is well-known analyst Ali Martinez, who predicts a 171% rise for BTC during the fourth quarter. If this happens, the cryptocurrency could reach a high of up to $172,000 by 2024.

After the interest rate cut by 50 basis points on the 18th, all eyes are on BTC’s performance in the fourth quarter of 2024. Since the halving, the cryptocurrency has been operating within a narrow range between US$50,000 and US$70,000, in which large investors have started to accumulate.

However, the Fed’s latest liquidity stimulus could lead to a bullish rally in Q4. This assessment is consistent with what happened in the 2020 cycle, when BTC started to appreciate from October.

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Will Bitcoin Hit $172,800 in Q4?

Based on this performance, analyst Ali Martinez evaluated data from the 2016 and 2020 halvings and made his prediction. During the fourth quarter of 2016, the price of BTC rose by 61%, while in 2020 the increase was over 171% in the same period.

Therefore, if Bitcoin replicates its 2020 performance again, it could climb between $100,000 and $172,000 by the end of this year. If that happens, the long-awaited $100,000 could arrive much sooner than the market expects.

Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics have already shown improvements in recent weeks, with major players like MicroStrategy continuing to buy. Michael Saylor’s company acquired over 7,400 BTC, paying $450 million, showing great confidence in its future performance.

The latest report from 10X Research noted that the market structure has been showing improvements with the increase in stablecoin minting as well as the rise in futures leverage. Citing previous halving cycles, the report stated that the probability of a BTC price breakout has increased as we approach Q4.

However, for this to happen, Bitcoin must break through the $65,000 barrier, which remains a major resistance. This rise would release much of the buying power that could drive the appreciation.

On the other hand, FTX is preparing to distribute $16 billion to creditors. Many market analysts believe that this liquidity would return to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, with creditors making purchases. Therefore, another factor that could drive up the price of cryptocurrency.

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