BlackRock ETF May Hold More Bitcoin Than Satoshi Nakamoto, Study Says

BlackRock’s Bitcoin (BTC) ETF, IBIT, has become the fastest fund in history to reach $1 billion in assets under management. But the fund could set a new milestone: having more BTC under custody than the cryptocurrency’s creator.

According to Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, it all depends on the pace of accumulation. If IBIT continues to receive investment at the current pace, it could surpass Satoshi Nakamoto within a year. That is, starting in August 2025, as Balchunas explained.

There is no exact estimate of how many BTC Satoshi owns, but research suggests that this amount could reach one million units. According to BlackRock, IBIT has almost 350 thousand BTC under custody, which makes this a prediction that cannot be ignored.

Will BlackRock’s ETF surpass Satoshi Nakamoto?

Through his X account, Balchunas shared the list of the ten largest BTC holders in the world. In this list, BlackRock and its IBIT appear in third place. Binance, which has around 550 thousand BTC, comes in second, while Satoshi leads the list with an estimated total of 1.1 million BTC.

What is most surprising is the dominance of Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF GBTC, which once held more than 600,000 BTC under custody. On Balchunas’ list, the fund appears with 263,801 BTC, a notable drop of more than 50%.

In this way, Balchunas confirms that IBIT is already the largest ETF on the market. But if the fund continues with this rate of fundraising, it could surpass Binance in 2024 – and Satoshi will come next year.

In addition to IBIT, other US BTC ETFs such as Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s two funds — BTC and GBTC — are also among the top ten largest holders of Bitcoin. Balchunas noted that together, these funds could hold more BTC than Satoshi by October.

Market volatility

Flows into Bitcoin ETFs have seen volatility, with large outflows occurring over the past week. This week, flows have recovered, with US BTC ETFs recording over $27 million in inflows on Monday (13).

With US$35.4 million, Ark Invest’s ARKB recorded the largest volume of inflows, followed by IBIT, which raised US$13.4 million. On the other hand, Bitwise’s BITB and Grayscale’s GBTC ETFs led the day’s outflows, losing US$17.1 million and US$11.8 million, respectively.

On Tuesday (14), the price of Bitcoin fell 1.5% and reached US$ 58,700, amid short-term expectations before the release of inflation data in the United States, which may determine whether the central bank (Fed) will cut interest rates. Currently, the market is placing a 50% chance that there will be a 25 basis point cut in September.

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