Less than 10% of investors believe Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in 2024

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Less than 10% of investors believe Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in 2024
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While Bitcoin (BTC) continues its journey of appreciation and attracts attention from investors, only a small portion of them believe that the cryptocurrency could reach the value of US$100,000 by the end of 2024.

According to data from Deribit Metrics, the options market assigns a probability of just 9.58% that BTC will reach this ambitious mark. This conservative expectation reflects the market’s cautious stance, despite signs of economic recovery and possible changes in United States monetary policies.

The low probability of BTC reaching US$100,000 comes despite investors’ optimism about the future of the digital currency. After periods of volatility and concerns about oversupply, the cryptocurrency market has been showing signs of stability.

However, Bitcoin’s implied volatility index, DVOL, remains around 50% to 60%, a level that indicates that investors do not expect major price swings in the short term. This scenario suggests that the BTC market should maintain more controlled movements, without large spikes to new price levels in the short term.

Bitcoin at US$100,000?

Implied volatility plays an important role in shaping these expectations. Based on the Black-Scholes model, the probability calculation in the options market takes into account the current price of BTC, the options’ strike price, expiration time and expected volatility.

The higher the implied volatility, the greater the chances of the Bitcoin price reaching higher values. However, the BTC volatility index suggests that the chances of a significant increase are limited.

Although the target of US$100,000 seems distant, some analysts see a more concrete possibility of BTC reaching US$82,000 by the end of the year. BloFin head of options trading Griffin Ardern explained that the 54% implied volatility for options expiring in December indicates an upside or downside margin of around 22%.

This projection puts BTC in a price range close to US$82,000. This is a more realistic, but still considerable, goal for investors.

The possibility of increased volatility in the coming months is also influenced by external factors, such as the US presidential election in November.

Investors believe that the electoral result could have a significant impact on the regulation of digital assets. The expectation is that Bitcoin’s volatility will increase, potentially leading to new price fluctuations. Regardless of the winner, analysts warn of the possibility of strong volatility in the cryptocurrency market, especially if the candidates’ policies affect the sector.

Less than 10% of investors believe Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in 2024

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Less than 10% of investors believe Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in 2024

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Less than 10% of investors believe Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in 2024

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