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Polymarket platform faces accusations of manipulation before the election
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ith the United States presidential election approaching, election prediction and betting platforms, such as Polymarket, are gaining prominence. Users invested billions in betting on the winner of the dispute, which currently points to former President Donald Trump with a 67% chance of victory. However, recent investigations cast doubt on the transparency of Polymarket’s data, with evidence of manipulation of transaction volumes.
With just a few days to go before the election, Polymarket is facing accusations of possible fraud in its betting metrics. In an analysis published on October 31, Chaos Labs and analytics firm Inca Digital identified signs of wash trading. This is a practice in which high-volume transactions occur without genuine market intention. The goal is to artificially inflate trading activity and volume.
This type of manipulation is worrying. After all, it can distort the chances of victory presented on the platform, which points to Trump as the favorite with 67% of bets.
According to researchers, around a third of the trading volume on Polymarket may be the result of wash trading. Inca Digital’s analysis also suggests that a “significant portion” of these bets show signs of manipulation, questioning the integrity of the data presented by Polymarket.
High rollers at Polymarket
The volume of bets on the presidential election reached US$2.7 billion, but, with suspicions of manipulation, the credibility of the platform’s predictions suffers significant damage.
In addition to volume manipulation, Polymarket faces criticism due to “whales” – large investors – betting significant sums in favor of Trump.
Among these high rollers are accounts such as Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie, which, according to the company, are linked to a French billionaire, although the name of this investor remains confidential. These accounts have accumulated bets of around $50 million, raising questions about the impact of the large bets on the direction of the platform’s predictions.
In response, Polymarket stated that the platform values transparency. However, suspicions of wash trading and the presence of these high rollers fuel concerns about the possible influence that predictions may have on the public. The odds of victory largely in favor of Trump, if artificially inflated, could impact voters’ perception, affecting confidence in the outcome of the dispute.
Polymarket, which operates in a betting environment for high-impact events such as presidential elections, occupies a delicate position. Results prediction platforms can influence public sentiment toward an election, shaping expectations and possibly affecting voter behavior.
If allegations of manipulation are confirmed, it could raise new discussions about the role and regulation of political event prediction platforms.
Polymarket platform faces accusations of manipulation before the election
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Polymarket platform faces accusations of manipulation before the election
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Polymarket platform faces accusations of manipulation before the election
