Bitcoin Price Declines, American Debt and Banking Crisis Are the Culprits

Liputan6.com, Jakarta Crypto prices were still experiencing downward pressure until Friday, May 12, 2023 and even Bitcoin fell to trade below USD 27,000 or the equivalent of IDR 399.7 million (assuming an exchange rate of IDR 14,806 per US dollar).

This decline occurred amid the latest CPI data showing slowing inflation. Usually when US inflation slows down the crypto market can strengthen, but not this time. So what causes it?

Tokocrypto’s external trader, Fyqieh Fachrur, explained that this decline was caused by several factors affecting the price of crypto assets in all markets, including the ongoing banking crisis and the threat of debt default by the United States government.

“The US CPI report provided BTC support briefly, sentiment towards the Fed’s monetary policy and news of the US Government’s sale of BTC weighed on investors’ appetite. It is noted that the US government’s alleged wallet has sold 9,800 Bitcoins which were confiscated by the US government’s Silk Road dark web, ” explained Fyqieh, in a press release, Friday (12/5/2023).

Future Fed Policy

However, the truth of the sale by the US government is still in doubt. On the other hand, the next step of the Fed after the release of April CPI data still casts a shadow on crypto investors.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June rate hike of 25 basis points fell from 21.2 percent to 5.0 percent in response to the CPI Report. However, chances of a June rate cut remain at 0 percent.

Although the April US inflation rate improved, headline inflation is still far from the Fed’s target of 2 percent. Core inflation was in line with expectations, coming in at 5.5 percent annually and rising 0.4 percent monthly.

“If the inflation rate continues to decline, this can also be a signal that the interest rate policy is believed to be paused in June and could reverse direction pushing Bitcoin prices and the overall crypto market,” concluded Fyqieh.

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