Predicting Bitcoin Price Movement After Halving, Will It Hit the Highest Price Again?

Liputan6.com, Jakarta – Ahead of the halving moment which is expected to occur on April 20, Bitcoin prices were observed to strengthen to a limited extent on Friday, April 19 2024. Bitcoin strengthened by 3.1 percent and traded at around USD 63,100 or the equivalent of IDR 1.02 billion (assuming an exchange rate of IDR 16,207 per dollar US).

Even so, the world's largest cryptocurrency has plunged more than 10.28 in the last seven days and more than 10.31% in the past month. According to Tokocrypto Trader, Fyqieh Fachrur, Bitcoin's decline occurred not without reason.

There are several influencing factors, mainly increasing tensions in the Iran-Israel conflict and the Fed's belief that it is impossible to reduce interest rates in a hurry this year.

“In addition, investors in the crypto market are looking forward to the halving. Trendwise, the halving will increase the price, but with Bitcoin prices recently reaching historic highs, doubts arise. The halving is expected to increase the price of BTC in the long term, but “Ahead of that, Bitcoin will fluctuate more and will likely continue to decline,” said Fyqieh in a press release, quoted Friday (19/4/2024).

Bitcoin Price Trends

Fyqieh explained the Bitcoin price trend ahead of the halving, if history repeats itself, BTC may experience a price decline before gaining momentum for a bull run.

This downward trend is not unexpected, as BTC is following historical trends ahead of the upcoming halving. Bitcoin is slowly moving from the “Pre-Halving Rally” phase to the “Pre-Halving Retrace” phase which tends to occur 28 to 14 days before the halving event.

This phase resulted in price drops of 38% and 20% in 2016 and 2020, respectively.

Bitcoin's history shows massive drops before halving followed by massive rallies.

“If you really want to accumulate assets like Bitcoin, maybe you can start DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) to reduce bitcoin volatility in the near future,” explained Fyqieh.

Adopting a DCA strategy can help investors buy BTC consistently and reduce the risk of prices going too high or low. Investors can also pay attention to historical trends and technical analysis to determine appropriate entry and exit points.

Although BTC price may experience another price correction, in the long term it looks bullish. Specifically, after the Pre-Halving Retrace phase, BTC will enter a re-accumulation phase.

The accumulation phase will probably last for almost 5 months. This re-accumulation range can increase Bitcoin price to reach New ATH.

“Many investors are reeling at this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment at the lack of big returns in their BTC investments following the Halving. Once Bitcoin breaks out of the re-accumulation area, a breakout into the uptrend. “It was during this phase that Bitcoin experienced accelerated growth towards a new all-time high,” said Fyqieh.

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