The Fourth Bitcoin Halving Completed, What's the Next Move?

Liputan6.com, Jakarta – Bitcoin on Friday evening (19/4/2024) completed its fourth halving, reducing the rewards earned by miners to 3,125 Bitcoins from 6.25.

Bitcoin prices fluctuated leading up to the event, and fell about 4% this week to trade at around USD 64,100, according to Coin Metrics.

Technically, the halving itself should not affect Bitcoin's price in the short term, but many investors are expecting big gains in the next few months, based on the cryptocurrency's performance after previous halvings.

After the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the price of bitcoin rose approximately 93 times, 30 times, and 8 times respectively from the halving price to the peak of its cycle. But this event is a big test for Bitcoin mining companies.

“All things being equal, the halving will cut industry revenues in half, trigger a wave of consolidation and business closures, and (hopefully) rationalize network hashrate and industry capital spending, which is ultimately good for the remaining operators,” said JPMorgan analyst Reginald Smith in recent note to investors, quoted from CNBC InternationalSaturday (20/4/2024).

For your information, hashrate is a measure of the computing power used to process transactions on the Bitcoin network. The greater the hash rate of a miner, the greater the income opportunities he has.

Likewise, another JPMorgan analyst, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, also estimates that Bitcoin prices in the short term will fall after the halving due to conditions overbought or overbought, and the price is still above the comparison of the cryptocurrency with gold when adjusted for volatility.

He also referred to weak venture capital funding for crypto projects.

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